Jobs and Skills Australia: National Employment Projections

Title: Employment Projections

Author: Jobs and Skills Australia

https://www.jobsandskills.gov.au/data/employment-projections

About

This Australian Government website offers a downloadable Excel document with employment projections in Australia up to 2033. It provides forecasts on job growth across sectors, occupations, and skill levels. The projections, rooted in data from the Australian Treasury, offer insights for short-term (2023 to 2028) and long-term (2023 to 2033) trends, reflecting both immediate and structural changes anticipated in the labour market. The information is useful for those strategising their career paths, especially within rapidly evolving industries.

Job outlook for:

Business analysts
Finance managers
Health professionals
Human resources managers
Logistics and supply chain managers
Marketing professionals
Mental health professionals
Nurses
Retail managers
Teachers
Urban planners

Author

Jobs and Skills Australia, in partnership with Victoria University, is responsible for this forward-looking employment projections report. As an authoritative source on labour market conditions, Jobs and Skills Australia's analysis is instrumental for workforce planning and informing national education and training policies.

Key Takeaways

National employment is predicted to increase by 910,400 jobs (6.5%) by 2028 and 1,973,900 jobs (14.2%) by 2033.
The Health Care and Social Assistance sector is highlighted for significant growth.
These projections underscore the need to align skill development with areas of job growth.
Career advancements will likely be influenced by how well individuals adapt to labour market shifts.
Recognising the trends in specific industries will be beneficial for targeted career development.

Business Analyst Job Outlook

The employment landscape for Management and Organisation Analysts is on an upward trajectory. Current data indicates an employment level of 107,200, which is projected to rise to 123,900 by May 2028. This suggests a notable increase of 16,700 jobs within the next five years, marking 15.6% growth in this sector.

By May 2033, the trend continues with an expected climb to 134,000 employed analysts, translating to an overall ten-year growth of 25%. These statistics underscore the expanding opportunities for Business Analysts, pointing towards a robust job market for those with analytical acumen in management and organisational roles.

For ICT Business and Systems Analysts, the Australian job market is also showing a positive trend. The projection indicates a growth of 12.7% in this field, reaching 58,100 jobs by 2028. This growth reflects the increasing reliance on technology and systems in business operations.

Finance Manager Job Outlook

The employment outlook for Finance Managers in Australia is set for strong growth. Projections indicate an increase from 71,780 positions in May 2023 to 81,327 by May 2028. This represents a significant rise of 9,547 jobs, equating to a 13.3% growth. This data suggests robust demand for Finance Managers, pointing to healthy sector growth and the creation of new opportunities in the field.

In comparison, Financial Investment Advisers and Managers are expected to see a more modest increase of 4.7%, adding 2,835 jobs to grow from 60,844 to 63,679 in the same period.

Health and Welfare Services Managers

The job outlook for Health and Welfare Services Managers in Australia is positive. In May 2023, there were 37,400 jobs in this field. This number is projected to grow to 43,100 by May 2028. This is an increase of 5,700 jobs or 15.4% over five years.

This growth highlights the rising demand for managers in health and welfare services. The sector is expanding due to developments in healthcare infrastructure and an aging population. Professionals in this field will find numerous opportunities as the demand for effective service delivery increases.

Health Professionals Employment Outlook

Australia's health sector is projected to experience a 13.6% job increase over five years. By May 2028, the number of Health Professionals is expected to reach 844,400 from 743,100 in May 2023.

This 13.6% growth points to a likely rise in health management roles. As the workforce expands, the demand for leadership in health services is set to increase proportionally.

Human Resources Manager Job Outlook

Australia's HR sector is set for growth from May 2023 to May 2028. Human Resource Managers are expected to see a 13.7% increase, growing from 106,000 to 120,500. Human Resource Professionals are projected to grow by 7.7%, from 86,000 to 92,700. Human Resource Clerks will experience a more modest growth of 5.0%, increasing from 23,900 to 25,100.

Overall, by 2028, the HR workforce is anticipated to reach 238,300, indicating a growing need for HR expertise across various roles. The significant growth in managerial positions suggests a strategic expansion of HR's role in organisations.

Logistics and Supply Chain Manager Outlook

Australia's logistics and supply chain management (SCM) sector is poised for growth. Jobs in supply, distribution, and procurement management are expected to increase from 50.1 thousand in May 2023 to 54.8 thousand by May 2028, a growth of 9.4%, and reach 58.4 thousand by May 2033, a 16.6% rise.

These figures from Victoria University signal strong demand for these roles, driven by evolving global trade and e-commerce, and high returns to SCM degrees. Managers adept at streamlining operations and supply networks are becoming more vital as businesses adapt to a changing market.

Marketing Professionals Projections

Jobs and Skills Australia's report, in collaboration with Victoria University, forecasts a notable rise in demand for "Advertising and Marketing Professionals" in Australia. The employment numbers for marketing professionals are expected to grow from 89,700 in 2023 to 100,300 in 2028, an 11.8% rise over 5 years. This trend highlights the growing importance of marketing roles in the evolving Australian economy.

These projections are crucial for those charting a career in marketing, offering insights into the dynamic nature of the field. The data, based on Australian Treasury analysis, serves as a valuable resource for understanding long-term trends and planning in the marketing sector.

Mental Health Professional Job Outlook

The job growth outlook to 2028 for Mental Health Professionals, including social workers, psychologists, and counsellors, indicates significant expansion.

The broader category of Social and Welfare Professionals is expected to grow from 190,711 positions in 2023 to 218,967 by 2028. This increase represents a growth of approximately 28,256 jobs, or 14.8%. Within this category, the number of counsellor roles is projected to rise from 29,695 to 34,181, an increase of about 4,485 jobs, or 15.1%.

Similarly, social worker positions are forecasted to grow from approximately 43,311 in 2023 to 50,180 by 2028. This growth signifies an addition of around 6,869 jobs, equating to a 15.9% increase. These figures highlight a notable trend of expanding job opportunities in the mental health sector over the next five years.

Related courses: Graduate Diploma in Mental Health

Nursing Occupation Projections

The projections for 2028 indicate that Registered Nurses will continue to form the largest group within the nursing workforce, with an expected 368,441 positions accounting for 83% of nursing roles. The figures are for nursing levels mainly, providing limited detail on employment of the many specific types of nurses in Australia.

The job outlook for nurse managers shows promising growth, reinforcing the salary potential from a MN degree. Employment is expected to rise from 20.8 thousand in May 2023 to 23.3 thousand by May 2028, and then to 25.8 thousand by May 2033. This equates to a 12.1% growth over five years and a 24.3% increase over ten years.

The job outlook for nurse educators and researchers is for solid growth. Employment levels are projected to rise from 7,800 in May 2023 to 8,700 by May 2028—an 11.4% growth. By May 2033, the number is expected to rise further to 9,600, marking a 22.3% rise over ten years.

Nurse employment projections 2023 to 2028

Occupation Code	Occupation	Skill Level	Jobs - May 2023 ('000)	Jobs - May 2028 ('000)	5 year growth ('000)	5 year growth (%)
2544	Registered Nurses	1	328.4	368.4	40.0	12.2%
2543	Nurse Managers	1	20.8	23.3	2.5	12.1%
2541	Midwives	1	18.7	20.9	2.3	12.2%
2542	Nurse Educators and Researchers	1	7.8	8.7	0.9	11.4%
4114	Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses	2	22.7	25.1	2.4	10.7%
3613	Veterinary Nurses	3	15.2	16.1	0.9	5.9%
4233	Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers	4	90.4	90.4	0.0	0.0%

Source: Jobs and Skills Australia - Detailed occupation projections.

While Nurse Managers, Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses, Midwives, and Nurse Educators and Researchers are projected to grow, they represent smaller segments of the total, with Nurse Managers at 5%, Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses at 6%, Midwives at 5%, and Nurse Educators and Researchers at 2%.

The small percentage of enrolled nurses raises questions about the value of a Diploma of Nursing, the qualification required to practice as an EN. Competition for jobs may be intense, and many nurses may move on to other roles, including becoming Registered Nurses (RNs) after completing degree studies.

Retail Manager Job Outlook

The job outlook for Retail Managers in Australia shows a modest increase in employment from May 2023 to May 2028. The employment level is projected to rise from 243,700 to 248,300 jobs, indicating a growth of approximately 1.9% over the five-year period. This suggests steady demand for Retail Managers in the Australian job market.

Teacher Job Projections

Australia's educators are seeing a steady job growth trend over the next 5 years, with Education Professionals expected to grow by 7.46% by 2028. In higher education, Tertiary Education Teachers could increase by 12.71%, University Lecturers and Tutors by 13.40%, and Vocational Education Teachers by 11.60%. Special Education Teachers are looking at a 6.87% rise. School Teachers overall are projected to reach a workforce of 515,680 (6.3% growth).

For school teachers specifically:

Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teachers: 63,653 projected employment level, 5.59% growth
Primary School Teachers: 174,874 projected employment level, 5.79% growth
Middle School Teachers: 2,068 projected employment level, 5.89% growth
Secondary School Teachers: 149,743 projected employment level, 5.76% growth
Special Education Teachers: 29,240 projected employment level, 6.87% growth.

Urban and Regional Planner Jobs

Employment of urban and regional planners in Australia is projected to grow by 8.3% between May 2023 and May 2028, increasing from 17,800 to 19,300 jobs. This uptrend reflects an increased focus on sustainable and strategic development in urban and regional areas.

Capturing job opportunities relies on education, especially early in a planning career. A Masters in Urban Planning can be highly beneficial. Students examine planning theories, design strategies, and sustainable development practices. You may also study urban economics, community engagement, and environmental policy. Graduates to are positioned to tackle urban growth challenges.